The Illusion of Local Control in Housing Affordability
While local policy changes may have some affect, they lack the checkbook to battle Federal economic policy.
Last week, I attended my 3rd Housing Forum in as many months. Each presentation has afforded me the opportunity to hear the clusterf&*! of discussion about how local governments in Cherokee County plan to “tackle” the the issue of affordability of housing. Over the past decade and especially post COVID, housing affordability has become a ventral talking point for most of our local government officials. Initially, it feels like a puzzle local governments can solve if they just try hard enough—tweak a zoning here, toss an incentive there—but in reality, they lack the power of the Federal Government’s checkbook and will have very little, meaningful influence.
Agencies like the Federal Reserve Bank, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac pull the strings, leaving local leaders with talking points, but lack the power to enact meaningful results. The Fed’s interest rate moves can flip mortgage costs overnight.. oh and BTW, they also have control over inflation. Low rates spark buyer stampedes and cause housing pricing to rapidly increase while high rates may freeze the market and cause prices to stagnate, but rarely decrease. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, those federal mortgage wizards, keep lenders afloat by buying loans backed by the Fed, but their rules on limits and standards decide who gets a key and who’s locked out, immune to local pleas. Even federal programs like Section 8 or HUD grants tie local hands with rigid guidelines, often clashing with realities like Georgia’s population boom stretching supply thinner than a budget motel towel.
Local leaders still give it their all, chasing control that allows them some positive remarks. They pitch zoning reforms for denser builds or micro-units—tiny homes that could fit cities like Woodstock and Canton while there’s still space. Cherokee County’s Chamber of Commerce heard this loud and clear in October 2024, where County Manager Geoff Morton boasted of fewer zoning snags than metro Atlanta, only to note construction costs have soared 40% since pre-COVID. State heavyweights like Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and House Speaker Jon Burns doubled down at their own event, vowing to slash permitting delays and zoning red tape. But here’s where the illusion cracks: even if they build more, federal moves—like the Fed’s rate tinkering—can pump demand so high that prices laugh at the extra supply.
Tax incentives? A nice gesture, but no match for national inflation spiking all costs.
Rent control? A losing bet that will scare off builders, tightening the market further, and driving pricing up.
Down Payment Assistance? $3,000, $10,000, $30,000, etc. of possible down payment assistance will have the adverse affect of the home going up in price by the same or a similar amount, negating any benefit from the assistance in the first place.
According to data from December 2024, the median home price in Cherokee County, varies slightly depending on the source. According to one report, the median home sold price was $475,070, while another indicates it reached $485,000 last month, and some have it just north of $500k. These figures reflect a year-over-year increase of around 5.8% to 7.9%. Metro Atlanta’s median home price hit $335,000 by late 2024. Cherokee County’s home prices are growing faster than other areas—the county’s popularity, federal fiscal policy, inflation, and investors (snagging 5.1% of local homes) keep increasing prices and make affordability just out of reach for many.
Over the past few years, local politicians have begun selling the dream of local fixes, but it’s mostly empty promises. They do have the power to adjust permits or/and zoning—Cherokee Politicians have pitched “homeownership for generational wealth” at many recent event—but prices and mortgages? That’s 100% outside of their control.
In his 2023 State of the City Address, Michael Caldwell (Mayor of Woodstock GA) outlined three major policy priorities for the upcoming year, one of which was "to concentrate city efforts on building generational wealth for citizens through the largest economic engine in human history, American home ownership." More recently, in his 2025 State of the City Address, Caldwell addressed metro Atlanta’s housing deficit of 350,000 units in the core five counties. He stressed that Woodstock’s development focus should be on "inventory that can be owned," arguing that this approach gives citizens "a real opportunity to match the wealth generation of their parents, and their grandparents, and their great grandparents." While I appreciate how our Mayor focusing on the aspects that the City can control, he does not provide any details on how any initiatives being discussed will lead to results.
Cherokee County Commission Chair Harry Johnston, who took the stage in his January 2025, “State of the County” speech, declaring, “Cherokee is thriving!” He’s got his finger on the pulse—40% of residents are “housing-burdened,” spending over 30% of income—and offers a plan: targets like 17% of new units as subsidized apartments under $875/month, 13% rentals under $1,500/month, and 10% homes in the low $300,000s. “Together, we can address our challenges,” he says, with genuine grit. Harry’s not wrong to try, but futile to enact meaningful change.
Johnston’s targets are a noble stab at control. The Fed can tweak rates and derail his “low $300,000s” homes—$335,000 is already metro Atlanta’s median—and with construction costs up 40%, $875 rents sound like a wish on a star. Growth’s on his radar—2.1% annually, projecting 385,000 residents in 20 years if it slows, 500,000 if not—but federal demand drivers like cheap loans can keep prices soaring, no matter his supply goals. Investors owning 5.1% of homes add a twist he doesn’t tackle—those rentals dodge his zoning net. Politics? He knows it’s tricky—folks in nice areas want to keep it that way—but he bets on teamwork. It’s a solid pitch, yet the illusion persists: federal economics can eclipse local effort faster than you can say “interest hike.” Harry’s not chasing windmills; he’s just up against a federal wall too tall for Cherokee’s ladder.
My unCommon Sense
Although I am not the biggest fan of “Trickle Down Economics,” it’s clear that the Federal Government’s long term economic policies have finally trickled down to the local level in a meaningful way. As a result, housing prices have increased exponentially nationwide. State and local governments are now discussing the allocation of local tax payer dollars towards attempting to solve local issues concerning housing affordability.
Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them. - Ronald Reagan
The illusion of meaningful local control over housing needs a wake-up call. Leaders like Caldwell and Johnston should keep pushing—streamline processes, allow more creative structures and zoning, test land trusts, MAYBE offer DPA for teachers, cops, firefighters, public servants, etc. if, when and where it fits—but let’s not pretend they can have a meaningful economic affect for most of the residents of Cherokee County. Also, be wary of other, large, local employers lobbying for that same tax payer funded down payment assistance for their lower paid employees. That $10,000 down payment boost might open a door, but federal rates, loans, inflation, and the home going up by $10k because of the seemingly free money is not going to solve anything, it will only exacerbate the problem.
Another example of a program that works with a long history is Habitat for Humanity. They build homes for low-income families, often earning 30-60% of the area median income, offering them a hand-up through sweat equity and zero-interest mortgages. Johnston’s mention of subsidized apartments under $875 a month targets this same group, aiming to ease the burden for the 40% of residents struggling with housing costs. But this focus can leave out the squeezed middle—public servants, young professionals, etc. who don’t qualify for aid yet can’t afford market-rate homes in the low $300,000s he suggested. While efforts like Habitat do wonders for the unhoused or underhoused, the conversation often skips the broader spectrum, where even "affordable" rentals at $1,500 a month feel out of reach for many working families not quite at the bottom but far from the top. Could programs like Habitat be expanded to higher income candidates, could their production volume be increased, etc. with assistance from local governments?
For our area, the County might also want to consider how it could help on the income side for many of the largest, local employers. Not thru direct payments but by encouraging more competition. The (2) largest employers in Cherokee County are Northside Hospital Cherokee and The Cherokee County School District. With more competition comes higher pay for all of their employees, public or private. If more Charter Schools, private schools, homeschool co-ops, etc. were encouraged in Cherokee County, teacher pay would increase. If Piedmont, CHOA, WellStar, another large hospital system placed another hospital in Cherokee or the surrounding area, the pay for nurses and many other medical professionals would increase. Results from an increase in competition are already be seen between CCSD and Cobb County School District. Cherokee has been forced to raise teacher pay to keep up with our county to the south. I will cover more of this topic in another, future post.
In Cherokee County, where many elected officials are seemingly “fighting the good fight,” and Georgia, where state leaders want less red tape, they’d be smart to lobby the feds for economic policies that fit local realities and lead to a more open market. Be Direct and tell local residents: the Fed, Fannie, and Freddie run this show, not city hall. It’s not about dumping blame—Caldwell is at least talking about it and Johnston’s at least trying to do something—it’s about seeing through the trick and working all angles. Give Michael, Harry and others a nod for trying; now let’s stop discussing spending local tax dollars attempting fix a macro economic problem that was created by a Federal blank checkbook that none of us in Cherokee County are signors.
If you want to chat about your thoughts on this topic, please send me an email dan@thrailkill.us or drop me a message using the button below. Would love to meet for coffee, a beer, or a virtual conversation.
Have a good one,
Dan